Monday, February 11, 2013

Mathematical Analysis of a Phone Plan

For a while, we had noticed that we weren't using the full allocation of shared 1400 voice minutes on our mobile plan, in fact using only about half. So we made the decision to switch to a 700-minute plan instead. As I revisit that decision from a mathematical angle, it is clear that we perhaps need to reconsider that switch. Enter the nerdiness.

Data from the last 15 months shows that we average around 717 minutes/month. Close enough to the 700-minute limit, with a little restraint on our part. This was why we switched plans in the first place. But a closer look at the data also shows that we were over the 700-minute mark 60% of the time, and in those specific months, the overage was 83 minutes on average (mostly during the holidays). At $0.35/min for extra minutes, it would cost $29 more. Given that the switch saves us $25/month, the 700-minute plan is workable.

The usage trend, however, would suggest we should be on the larger plan: month-to-month, usage has grown 0.9% (around 7 minutes) over the 15-month period. This means that the likelihood of overage on the 700-minute plan will be higher (and increases) in the next several months, making it more expensive to stay on that plan. If life gets more interesting or I garner more business later this year, this plan will obviously not be enough. So why are we sticking with it?

The good news is that we can switch anytime we need to (online even) at no extra cost. Verizon also allows you to set usage alerts; tripping those 2-3 times will necessitate a return to the old plan. The math indicates that the 700-minute plan is good enough for the time being, but we should consider the 1400-minute plan in the near future, depending on how "active" our life becomes.

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